As of 12 noon, the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire.

No warnings or advisories are currently in effect, and no new warnings are likely to be issued.

Skies continue to clear across the region and winds have been steadily subsiding.

Temperatures remain unseasonably cool, but they will recover nicely Sunday as highs climb back into the mid and upper 60's.

While scattered power outages remain, weather conditions will no longer hamper restoration activities.

This will be the final weather discussion issued about this highly unusual late season storm event.

Courtesy of: John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

Friday, May 10, 2002; 6:00 p.m.

WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS STORM STARTS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD CAPE COD

BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT COASTAL FLOODING TO END

! ! ! This Weather Information is for Exercise Use Only ! ! ! 

The majority of the precipitation with this highly disruptive nor'easter has already occurred. We will continue to see spiral bands of snow and rain sweep northeast to southwest across the region tonight, but there will be significant breaks in the action as the storm's main precipitation shield shifts off to the north and east of Connecticut.

With the onset of the evening hours and with the north to northwest wind flow now in place, surface temps have fallen enough to allow some of the rain in central Connecticut to change to wet snow. No significant accumulations are expected to occur south or east of western Hartford County, but some slushy accumulations may be noted. To the west of Hartford County, snowfall totals have generally been in the 12 to 16 inch range, but a few locations may have exceeded 16 inches. The very wet nature of the snowfall has made accurate measurements almost impossible. The combination of this very heavy wet snowfall along with major tree and power line damage will make a return to normal travel conditions very slow to occur. Travel will remain nearly impossible in many areas of Litchfield County, and serious travel trouble will also continue to be the rule in many areas of central and southern Connecticut due to tree & power line damage along with some continuing road closures due to flooding issues.

Winds are going to continue to be a major problem. There has been some decrease in wind speeds over the past couple of hours, but this will only be temporary. Once the storm center moves a bit further east late tonight we will see wind speeds increase significantly once again. "High Wind Warning" criteria will likely continue to be met, and warnings have been extended through tonight for all areas. Wind gusts will likely exceed 55 mph at times, and this will hamper attempts to restore power to many areas. In fact, the power outage situation may continue to worsen in some locations since tree damage may still occur later tonight. The news along the coastal plain is somewhat better. As winds turn to the north then northwest, the offshore flow will allow seas to subside. Flood warnings will be allowed to expire this evening.

Courtesy of: John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

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ARCEX 2002 SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Friday, May 10, 2002; 12:00 noon

SEVERE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS STORM REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND

HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER STORM STARTS TO PULL AWAY THIS EVENING

! ! ! This Weather Information is for Exercise Use Only ! ! ! 

Unfortunately the Great Spring Nor'easter of 2002 has lived up to its billing and is not done yet. Heavy wet snows continue to fall over parts of Litchfield County and the high terrain of western Hartford and New Haven & Fairfield counties. Snowfalls have exceeded 15 inches in many of these areas, and the wetness of the snow has led to incredible loading on trees and power lines across the snow region. Widespread tree and power line damage will continue into the mid and late afternoon hours even after the steady snowfall has ended. Roadways are generally impassable across most of Litchfield and adjoining counties due to the very heavy accumulations of wet snow, and widespread tree damage. Another 2 to 4 inches of wet snow may accumulate in these areas before the storm abates. WINTER STORM WARNINGs remain in effect.

Localized rainfalls in parts of central and southern Connecticut have produced scattered areas of generalized stream and small river flooding, along with some reports of flash flooding. Tree and power line damage is widespread as well in these areas, and this, combined with flooded roadways, is making for very dangerous travel conditions. A few more bands of locally heavy rain will rotate through the region over the next 2 to 4 hours, and this will prevent much improvement in the flooding situation for the remainder of the daylight hours.

Strong damaging winds, which have raked the region since late Thursday, may subside across inland areas for a while this afternoon, but will increase once again late today as the pressure gradient increases on the backside of the storm. I expect wind gusts to remain above warning criteria statewide into tonight, so little improvement in the power outage problem is likely. Wind directions will be shifting to northwest later this evening.

Coastal areas continue to get battered by wind gusts occasionally above storm force. Wind gusts to or above 65 mph have occurred, and even if there is a lessening of the wind this afternoon, it will not be decreasing below gale force. Coastal flooding will continue to be a serious problem until the wind shifts to north to northwest later today. COSTAL FLOOD WARNINGs remain in effect.

Courtesy of: John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

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It may seem late in the season to be worried about a severe nor'easter, but atmospheric conditions have now come together and are in the process of producing a potentially historic late season nor'easter. The following warnings are in effect: A "WINTER STORM WARNING"' for all of Litchfield County, and the western portions of Hartford County, along with the far northern areas of northern New Haven, and Fairfield counties. A "HIGH WIND WARNING" is in effect for all Connecticut counties. A "COASTAL FLOOD WARNING" has been issued for the entire coastal plain of Connecticut, and a "FLASH FLOOD WATCH" has been issued for all counties not included in the winter storm warning area.

Snow is now falling in all of Litchfield County and will soon spread into the higher terrain of western Hartford and far northern New Haven and Fairfield counties. Snowfall accumulations in excess of 10 inches are likely by Friday in these areas. Overnight, roadways will likely become covered with heavy accumulations of very wet, slushy snow making travel very difficult if not impossible.

Winds have been increasing steadily and wind gusts above 40 mph have already been reported. Winds will increase to full gale force and may exceed storm force later tonight and early Friday statewide. Frequent wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are likely, and maximum wind gusts above 60 mph will likely occur across inland areas. This will cause widespread tree and power line damage especially in the area of heavy wet snowfall. Travel will become very hazardous due to fallen wires and tree damage as we move through the evening hours.

Temperatures will likely be warm enough to support mainly rain in the central valley area of the state, as well as eastern and southern Connecticut. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches between now and early Friday could allow for scattered areas of flash flooding and flood warnings may be required in some locations. Winds along the coastal plain are expected to turn more easterly and increase to well over 50 mph in gusts by late in the day. Wind gusts will exceed 60 mph frequently tonight and Friday. Widespread coastal flooding is very likely, and will become very serious late tonight and again Friday during the next two high tide cycles.

Courtesy of: John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

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The threat of a serious, potentially highly disruptive late season nor'easter has increased dramatically today as new computer data is indicating the likelihood of an explosive storm development occurring just off the Middle Atlantic coastline on Thursday.

The latest guidance shows the potential for a rapidly deepening storm to form southeast of Atlantic City, NJ during the day Thursday. This storm would then slowly drift northeastward toward Cape Cod late Thursday night into Friday. The jet stream pattern is such that a deep upper low may form just west of the surface storm center, allowing it to be captured for about 12 to 18 hours. This could force the storm to stall south of Long Island during the day Friday.

A large area of unseasonably cold air that has been positioned over western Canada, and has been responsible for the recent deep snows over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, will rush eastward tonight and Thursday as a strong area of high pressure moves from western Canada to just north of New England. This cold air will be drawn into the storm and should allow for a very late season heavy snowfall across parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut. The favored areas for heavy snow will be the Berkshires southward into most of Litchfield County as well as the high terrain of western Hartford County. Significant tree damage, and thus power outages could occur if the heavy, wet snowfall materializes later Thursday and Friday.

The tight pressure gradient between the deepening storm south of the region, and the high pressure area to the north will likely cause gale to storm force winds to rake the region later Thursday through Friday. Significant tree damage could occur due to the strong winds. Also, a prolonged period of strong easterly winds will combine with 2 or more high tide cycles to produce a serious, potentially life-threatening coastal flood threat in coastal Connecticut, especially in the favored areas of western Long Island Sound. It is likely that several types of weather warnings will be needed during the course of this storm event. This is a serious storm event, and all persons and agencies should not dismiss the threat it poses.

Courtesy of: John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

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Tuesday, April 30, 2002

UPDATED SPRING STORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The pattern continues to unfold in a manner that could be supportive of a very late season snow and wind event across Southern New England.

Over the past 2 weeks, we have seen several strong intrusions of unseasonably cold air and 2 high elevation snow events. Also during the period, we experienced our earliest heat wave (3 consecutive 90 degree days) ever.

My concern revolves around the fact that we are now entering the time of the year when it becomes more common for strong rushes of very warm to hot air to move northward into New England. At the same time, there is no apparent change in the jet stream that would prevent cold air masses from western Canada from sliding southeastward toward New England over the next couple of weeks. The potential exists for one of these cold air masses to encounter a northward advancing hot/humid air mass during the first 2 weeks of May. Such a collision would likely produce an intense coastal storm that could cause a very late season snowfall accompanied by very strong winds and coastal flooding.

No one should under estimate the potential for a late season, highly disruptive storm event during the next 1 to 2 weeks. While no specific storm event is yet being modeled by computers, the overall pattern seems quite favorable and close monitoring must continue. With trees now leafed out, any significant snowfall would produce significant tree damage, and thus scattered to widespread travel and power disruptions. Also, with the early recreational season now underway, the threat to boating interests and coastal communities would be serious.

With the approach of the late spring season, there are some specific weather indicators hinting strongly at an unusually late season winter storm event. These signals are similar to ones seen in the spring of 1977 when a large scale heavy wet snow event occurred and caused significant problems across the region.

There has been a cycle over the past 3 months of upper level ridges developing across the eastern US only to be followed by a rapidly amplifying upper level trough in the same axis that had been the ridge position. Each time this has happened an unseasonably cold air mass has tried to surge southward into New England, and an intense storm has tried to form just offshore.

A strong ridge of high pressure is currently building across the region. This ridge of high pressure is expected to collapse next week as the cycle mentioned above occurs once again. A deep trough should develop during the last week of April or within the first 2 weeks of May. Supporting this idea is the fact that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to trend negative. A negative trend of NAO is often a precursor to a large scale East Coast trough and the possibility of a late season snowstorm.

During the spring season there is a tendency for upper level troughs to close off and become almost stationary. When this occurs intense coastal storms can form and punish the region with many hours of heavy precipitation and strong winds. This exact situation occurred in 1977 and led to one of the latest heavy snowfalls ever. That storm caused significant power outages across interior areas since trees were already leaf covered and the heavy wet snow allowed numerous trees to be felled.

Since we are now seeing at least hints of this type of storm scenario setting up for early May it would be prudent to consider the possibility. There is still ample cold air across eastern Canada that could become involved with a late season nor=easter, and thus the potential for a late season heavy snow and strong wind event, which could prove highly disruptive, should not be dismissed even though the frequency of such an event is quite low.

Courtesy of : John Bagioni, Meteorologist; FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE; 860-675-9091

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